Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order – Charts [All 112 Pages]

Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order is an important book as the world undergoes fundamental changes economically, militarily, technologically, and geopolitically.

The book is filled with countless useful graphics, so presented below are all of them.

It’s also a great overall read in physical copy, which you can grab at a great price on Amazon.

Ray Dalio's The Changing World Order - Charts [All 112 Pages]


rough quantitative scoring of measures by stage in cycle

 

changes to the world order conceptual example

 

CHAPTER 2: THE DETERMINANTS

how the economic machine works

 

the three big cycles

 

dynamics to pay attention to

 

determinants addendum

CHAPTER 3: THE BIG CYCLE OF MONEY, CREDIT, DEBT, AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

types of monetary systems

 

CHAPTER 4: THE CHANGING VALUE OF MONEY

reserve currencies vs gold spot fx, spot fx vs gold

 

fx total return vs gold

 

spot fx vs gold 1913-1930, 1930-1950

 

spot fx vs gold 1966-1977

 

currency and gold real returns of major countries since 1850

 

real return of bills vs cpi

 

CHAPTER 5: THE BIG CYCLE OF INTERNAL ORDER AND DISORDER

china vs us changing world order

 

major chinese dynasties and their stages

 

global rgdp per capita

 

historical likelihood of internal conflict based on share of economic measures worse than threshold

 

internal conflicts civil wars over time

 

CHAPTER 6: THE BIG CYCLE OF EXTERNAL ORDER AND DISORDER

est european deaths from conflict

 

 

deu equity returns

 

equity return index usd

 

CHAPTER 7: INVESTING IN LIGHT OF THE BIG CYCLE

building blocks of a well-diversified portfolio

 

a look at asset returns across the great powers

 

share of portfolios losing x% over 5 years by country 60/40 portfolio real returns

For China and Russia, bond data pre-1950 is modeled using hard currency bond returns held as though hedged back to local currency by a domestic investor; stocks and bonds modeled as full default at time of revolution. Annualized returns assume a full 10-year period even if markets closed during the decade.

 

worst investor experiences across major countries

Cases of poor asset returns in smaller countries such as Belgium, Greece, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and across the emerg- ing world are excluded from this table. Note that for conciseness the worst 20-year window is shown for each country/time period (i.e., including Germany in 1903–23 precludes including Germany from 1915–35). For our 60/40 portfolios, we assumed monthly rebalancing across the 20-year window.

 

periods of wealth confiscation, periods of strict rising capital controls

While this diagram is not exhaustive, I include instances where I could find clear evidence of each occurring in the 20-year period. For this analysis, wealth confiscation was defined as extensive seizure of private assets, including large-scale forced, non-economic sales by a government (or revolutionaries in the case of revolution). Relevant capital controls were defined as meaningful restrictions on investors moving their money to and from other countries and assets (although this does not include targeted measures directed only at single countries, such as sanctions).

 

STOCK MARKET CLOSURES ACROSS MAJOR ECONOMIES

 

impact of taxes on rolling 20-year S&P total returns

Tax impact for 401(k) method applies a 26 percent income tax rate (effective average federal tax rate for top quintile from the Congressional Budget Office as of 2017) at the conclusion of each 20-year investment period (i.e., tax-free investment growth). Tax impact for brokerage method separately taxes dividends (at the same 26 percent income tax rate) and capital gains, paying taxes on all capital gains (at a 20 percent rate) from both principal and dividend reinvestment at the conclusion of each 20-year investment period and netting losses against any gains.

 

real return of bills vs cpi, gold returns during 60/40 drawdowns

 

real bond yield

 

nominal payback period

 

CHAPTER 8: THE LAST 500 YEARS IN A TINY NUTSHELL

 

book manuscript production in major european countries

 

rough count of tributary areas

 

CHAPTER 9: THE BIG CYCLE RISE AND DECLINE OF THE DUTCH EMPIRE AND THE GUILDER

netherlands index of key determinants

 

dutch arc 1550-1850

 

share of major inventions

 

dutch empire accomplishments

 

dutch major inventions

 

dutch east india co dividends

 

dutch standing relative to other great powers

 

dutch east india company balance sheet

 

bank of amsterdam holdings

 

dutch guilder value bank of amsterdam reserve ratio

 

dutch eic total returns by year of initial investment

 

dutch bond prices

 

CHAPTER 10: THE BIG CYCLE RISE AND DECLINE OF THE BRITISH EMPIRE AND THE POUND

changes to the world order

 

united kingdom uk index of key determinants

 

uk arc 1600 to present

 

great britain govt revenue 1600 to present

 

real gdp per capita 1400 to present

 

great britain share of world exports

 

share of global debt in gbp

 

uk wealth gap

 

share of world patent applications

 

warship tonnage

 

 

gbp fx vs gold

 

great britain current account gold reserves

 

average share of pounds in central bank reserves

 

uk per capita

 

CHAPTER 11: THE BIG CYCLE RISE AND DECLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE DOLLAR

us index of key determinants

 

us arc 1750 to present

 

relative standing of great empires

 

us long rates short rates

 

private sector nonfinancial debt %gdp

 

us income shares wealth shares ideological positions of the major parties

 

share of congressional members votes cast along party lines

 

europe uk central bank balance sheets

 

japan balance sheet

 

CHAPTER 12: THE BIG CYCLE RISE OF CHINA AND THE RENMINBI

relative standing of great empire us china

 

china index of key determinants

 

transitions across different types of money in chinese history

 

cny vs usd

 

china's development since 1949 and 1978

 

united states and china education comparisons

 

CHAPTER 13: US-CHINA RELATIONS AND WARS

share of central bank reserves by currency

 

CHAPTER 14: THE FUTURE

global population

 

global life expectancy at birth

 

global real wealth per capita

 

global deaths by category

 

estimated deaths from conflict

 

debt burdens of leading powers reserve currency status

 

relative internal conflict gauge z-score

 

us internal conflict gauge breakdown

 

us-china conflict gauge

 

global deaths by category

 

number of natural catastrophic events

 

climate change vulnerability

 

empire score across major powers

 

 

 

real gdp growth estimate next ten years

 

APPENDIX: COMPUTER ANALYSIS OF THE CONDITIONS OF, AND PROSPECTS FOR, THE WORLD’S LEADING COUNTRIES

united states key drivers of our country power score

 

china key drivers of our country power score

 

eurozone key drivers of our country power score

 

germany key drivers of our country power score

 

japan key drivers of our country power score

 

india key drivers of our country power score

 

united kingdom uk key drivers of our country power score

 

france key drivers of our country power score

 

netherlands key drivers of our country power score

 

russia key drivers of our country power score

 

spain key drivers of our country power score

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